The sugarcane crush in Brazil´s Center-South region in the 2016-17 season is likely to amount to 644 million mt, an increase of 6% from the previous season, according to JOB Economia, one of Brazil´s leading agribusiness consultancies.

JOB Economia expects the 2016-17 season to see a large crop and higher prices, similar to 2010-11, JOB Economia´s president Julio Maria Borges told Platts in an email.

Beneficial rains have led to an increase in sugarcane in the fields, presenting mills with a perfect opportunity to sort out financial issues and seek operational efficiency, according to JOB. However, Borges recommended caution and strategy amid uncertainties and within a global market.

JOB forecasts the ratio of sugarcane directed to sugar production in 2016-17 at 42.4%, up from 40.6% last season, to produce 34.8 million mt of sugar, up 4 million mt from the previous campaign.

It also expects sugar exports to reach 25 million mt, from 22.4 million mt in the previous season, while domestic sugar consumption is forecast to ease 0.3% to 8.87 million mt.

It forecasts ATR -- total recoverable sugar -- to increase by 2.3 kg/mt of cane to 133.5 kg/mt.

The balance of sugarcane, or 57.6%, will be directed to produce 29.1 billion liters of ethanol, up 5% year on year. Domestic ethanol consumption is expected to rise 3% to 25.7 billion liters, while exports will total 1.8 billion liters, down 15% from the previous season.

Ethanol imports in CS Brazil will quadruple to 400 million liters, according to JOB.

Uncut sugarcane left in the fields this season -- cana bisada -- is expected to reach 36 million mt, due to limited industrial capacity, JOB said. This means cane availability in CS Brazil this season amounts to 680 million mt.

The season officially started April 1 and ends March 31, 2017. Crushing in the first quarter of the calendar year is usually small as most mills are in the intercrop period.

However, JOB counts March figures within its calculations for the 2016-17 crush, and estimates 260 days of crushing, ending in December.

JOB also based its calculations on normal weather conditions.

-Alessandra Rosete, alessandra.rosete@platts.com
-Edited by Jonathan Fox, jonathan.fox@platts.com